The forecast of the dollar in the fall of 2018
In connection with the latest political events, the forecast of the dollar exchange rate for autumn 2018 is of interest not only to exchange analysts, but also to ordinary citizens. The US dollar is the leading currency of the global financial market. Many economic indicators depend on its value, as well as prices for services and essential goods. In addition, most of the citizens of the Russian Federation prefer this currency to accumulate savings. The sharp rise in the value of the USD in early August caused serious concern. What is expected in the fall of 2018?
Today, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the dollar exchange rate is 66.91 rubles. According to many experts, the value of the dollar against the ruble in the autumn of 2018 will only increase, which is connected with many factors.
Geopolitics have a great influence on the state of the national currency. The aggressive attitude of the West towards Russia greatly destabilizes the ruble’s position and leads to its fall.Also, the dollar in Russia depends on the price of oil on the world market, and on the policy of the Fed, which forces foreign investors to withdraw their capital.
Adverse factors, both as a whole and individually, can lead to a rate of 70 rubles per $ 1 in early autumn. There is a high probability that the rate may rise to 80 rubles by the end of the year.
One of the key factors affecting the value of the domestic currency, are sanctions. Vladimir Rozhansky, a leading analyst at Global FX, believes that the next US sanctions package could significantly weaken the position of the ruble. Evidence of this was the new restrictions that the US government imposed on the Scripal case. Washington argues that they have irrefutable data from reliable sources proving the guilt of the Russian special services in Skripal poisoning. However, we are not going to publish this data yet.
Important! New restrictions begin to operate from August 22. If the Russian side fails to meet the requirements of the United States, the second sanctions package will come into force in three months.
As a result, there was a sharp drop in the national currency,and at the beginning of August 9, the dollar exchange rate after the opening of the Moscow Exchange amounted to 66.25 rubles (however, on the same day the situation stabilized and the growth stopped). This is due to the fact that economic and financial relations with the Russian Federation are complicated by the conditions of the sanctions packages. Therefore, foreign investors are not in a hurry to conclude new contracts and renew old ones with Russian companies and invest money in any projects. Moreover, they are actively selling their existing shares.
Today we can not say that the US sanctions pressure stops. In the future, we should expect new restrictions on Aeroflot, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, as well as the second package of sanctions related to the Skripal case. Such circumstances are not favorable factors for the strengthening of the ruble.
The instability in the purchase and sale of “black gold” is another negative trend that affects the state of the ruble. Now the budget is priced at $ 43 per barrel of oil. All revenues in excess of this price go to an increase in the National Wealth Fund, so a decrease in value will adversely affect the country's economy. The average market price of one barrel today is $ 73. If the figures drop to $ 60 per barrel, then the USD rate is expected to increase to 70 rubles.
Lower oil prices may result from tougher sanctions or a fall in the price of a barrel in the international market. Experts say that the first option is most likely being implemented.
Additionally, the introduction by some countries, including the US, of customs duties, due to which world GDP may drop significantly, aggravates the situation. As a result, there is a slowdown in the development of the world economy, the derivative of which is the decrease in the price of oil. This is stated by the IMF director Christine Lagard.
Strengthening the national currency and the depreciation of the USD may occur if the price of oil stays the same or becomes more expensive (which is unlikely).
The US Federal Reserve continues a tough policy to strengthen the American volute. This year, another rate increase is planned, which will affect the economies of developing countries. This can lead to a reduction in capital receipts from outside. Already, there is a tendency to reduce the volume of investments by non-residents of Russia.In the third quarter of 2018 alone, the market share shrank by $ 1.5 billion.
Experts also suggest that increasing VAT is unattractive to potential investors. It can also weaken the position of the national currency.
Will the dollar cost 100 rubles
The most pessimistic forecast for 2018 is the collapse of the ruble exchange rate. However, the data of such a forecast are unfounded and do not take into account the measures that the Russian government is carrying out to prevent the appreciation of foreign currency.
According to all possible forecasts, this situation is unlikely to arise, but, nevertheless, it is not worth excluding a significant reduction in the value of the domestic currency. It should be noted that the weakening of the ruble can lead to:
- new US sanctions;
- increased production of cheaper oil;
- the inability of the domestic industry to adequately perform import substitution;
- significant capital outflows (withdrawal of funds by businessmen abroad).
Of course, such unforeseen circumstances as natural disasters should not be excluded. An example of this is the decline in USD positions in 2017 after Hurricane Harvey.