What awaits Russia in 2018 - economic forecast
The difficult situation in the Russian economy is a heavy burden on the shoulders of Russians. Plants are shutting down, production is stopped, employees of some enterprises are laid off, inflation is rising, purchasing power is declining - this is an incomplete list of what every citizen of our country sees. If there is a way out of the current situation and when there will be an improvement, everyone is interested.
The crisis in Russia
From 2014 to 2017, the Russian economy has changed beyond recognition. Three years ago, our country looked quite well compared to other countries. With the price of the country's main export commodity — oil at $ 100, the average salary in the Russian economy, according to statistics, was one thousand dollars. Now, with oil prices at $ 45 per barrel, the earnings of our citizens have more than doubled. Currently, the average Russian can earn no more than $ 400.
If in the coming years the cost of oil will not rise, the Russian economy will continue to fall further. The reason for this is the short-sighted policy of the country's leadership in the previous decade. The government has done nothing to move the domestic economy to new rails. The country's dependence on energy exports has not been reduced. What this may lead to in the future is evident from the current situation in Venezuela, which also lived solely due to the export of oil.
Social costs were added to purely economic problems. Currently, the state is no longer able to keep the bar of social obligations high. The reserve fund is fading away. If it continues this way, the issue of payment of pensions and other social benefits will become more acute.
It has already become apparent that the increase in territory did not bring the expected dividends. Raising the depressed Crimea requires all new allocations from the state budget. Providing residents of Crimea with water, electricity, gas will require fresh injections into a new subject of the Russian Federation. What is the construction of one of the Kerch bridge.All this will increase tension in Russian society. The embodiment of the growing dissatisfaction of Russian citizens with the policy of the state is the protests of truckers throughout the country.
“Fatty millennials” were spent on the construction of an unreasonable bureaucracy, which is mired in corruption. This is confirmed by a film about the estate of D. Medvedev, which has already caused a wave of protests of the country. If the authorities continue to remain inactive, this could lead to a social explosion in many regions of Russia.
The West can take advantage of this and, on the eve of the elections of 2018 in Russia, even more bring down the oil quotations. This can lead to a complete collapse of Russia and its division into specific principalities, which can be easily managed both by Americans and Europeans.
Economic forecast Kudrin
Most analysts believe that the forecast of the former Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation is the most worthy and deserves attention. According to them, this economist, who headed the financial department for eleven years, is best understood in the economic situation in the country.Thanks to him, a large part of Russia's foreign debt was paid and a considerable amount of money was collected into the state stabilization fund.
He believes that the peak of the crisis in Russia fell in 2015, and now the country has slowly but surely emerged from the crisis. It is too early to relax and sleep. For the final recovery from the crisis, decisive action is needed to improve public administration. Currently, this system does not meet the challenges of time and is imperfect. You also need to establish a trusting relationship between government, business and the people. The economist also believes that it is necessary to venture on an unpopular step and increase the retirement age.
Forecast of other domestic specialists
The opinions of experts of our country differ from each other. This table shows this:
|Opinion of experts||GDP growth in 2018|
|Center for Strategic Research||1,8 — 2,7 %|
|Ministry of Economic Development||1,5 – 2 %|
|Bank of Russia||1,5 %|
Opinions of independent experts
Foreign analysts also have different points of view on the economic situation in Russia in 2018:
- Specialists of the International Monetary Fundbelieve that 2017 will be the beginning of a way out of recession for Russia.At the end of 2017, you can count on a gradual economic recovery of 1.3%. Next year there will be a steady growth in the region of 1.5%.
- Fitch Agencypredicts a decline in oil production in Russia due to falling prices for this type of fuel. Sanctions from the European Union will not only be lifted, but will be intensified. Russia will remain in a difficult economic condition, at least until 2020.
- European Commission Forecastcan be trusted, since it accurately predicted the fall of Russia's GDP in 2015 in the amount of 3.7%. Analysts of this organization believe that the growth of the Russian economy will begin in 2017. In 2018, we can hope for a steady growth of 1%. At the same time, the inflation rate in the country will be 6%.
- Financier D. Sorosassures that the resource of the Russian economy is running out, which will force the country's authorities to reduce the budget allocation The implementation of the “treaty” between the government of V.Putin and society about maintaining financial stability and the welfare of the nation in 2018 will be questionable. The country may face a severe crisis, the consequences of which are unpredictable.
The news feed of the last days gives a complete picture of the economic situation in the country:
- The Bank of Russia reported a disappointing trend: Capital outflow from the country for the first three months of 2017 amounted to $ 15.4 billion, which is 1.8 times more compared to the same period last year.
- As shown by the latest Bloomberg survey, the weakening of the ruble could have a positive effect on the situation in the Russian economy. This is due to the fact that many export-oriented companies will receive income in net currency.
- The Russian oil Urals rose in price in the first quarter of 2017 by 1, 6 times compared with last year and amounted to $ 52.04 per barrel.